Close to a million households across six Kenyan counties are facing food insecurity as the country braces for an El Ni?o event expected to bring above-average rainfall from October.
The counties affected are Baringo, Garissa, Makueni, Mandera, Tana River and Wajir.
The World Food Programme's National Long Rains Assessment for Kenya, published in August, found that most of the country received near-average to above-average rainfall between March and May. Those gains were undercut by prolonged dry spells and an early end to the rains. The rainfall did not translate into the food security improvements it might otherwise have delivered.
WFP says the priority now is scientific monitoring.
"Anticipatory action, especially for an event like El Ni?o, would require ensuring that we have the right scientific methods to monitor triggers, dam levels and information around the potential amounts of rainfall," said Felix Oketch, WFP's Head of Refugee Emergency Action and Anticipatory Action Preparedness in Kenya.
WFP's Kenya Country Brief for July reported that dry conditions and elevated temperatures persisted through June and were expected to continue into August. Forecasters have since flagged a growing likelihood of an El Ni?o event bringing above-normal rainfall between October and December, and possibly into early 2027. The risk of flooding and damage to infrastructure and livelihoods is high.
For the six counties already coping with food insecurity, the forecast carries a further complication. Flooding could cut road access to hard-to-reach areas at precisely the moment needs are rising.
Anticipatory Action Plans
Kenya has made significant strides in disaster preparedness compared to previous years, Mr. Oketch said, pointing to new legislation that has strengthened coordination among national and county governments. That legal framework is now being put to use as the country prepares for El-Ni?o, with WFP supporting counties to develop anticipatory action plans spanning regulatory coordination, community engagement and on-the-ground preparation.
UNHCR/Santi Palacios. Women walk through a flooded village at sunset, affected by the return of El Ni?o in South Sudan.
"It would require mapping out areas which would be vulnerable to flooding if heavy rains hit, mapping out communities and communicating with them on the potential impact of the impending hazard, and also identifying areas for relocation," Mr. Oketch explained.
WFP's Kenya Country Brief for July 2026 indicates that the organization continues to assess and analyze related vulnerability to keep interventions targeted and responsive to evolving needs. The brief indicates that WFP reached about 1.3 million people in June through cash transfers and capacity strengthening, and currently, WFP is coordinating flood anticipatory planning on the principle that acting before shocks occur saves lives and livelihoods.
The National Long Rains Assessment, co-conducted by WFP and the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), involved establishing triggers that prompt early action before a shock hits, as well as providing information on regions and households that might require financial or food support.
The counties identified in the assessment were already grappling with food insecurity beforehand, and Oketch warned that the forecast rains introduce a further complication: restricted access to the very areas where support is most needed, particularly in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). About 800,000 of the roughly one million affected households are classified as either in crisis or emergency, according to the assessment. One of the central concerns as the country prepares for the predicted El-Ni?o is roads washing out, making it harder to reach interior regions just as needs rise.
"With an event like this, it would take us back in terms of impact on the infrastructure that supports livelihoods. There is an immediate impact on people, and a potential impact on livelihoods that have been built," Mr. Oketch said of the risks currently being assessed ahead of the above-normal rainfall.
What is Different this Year
Preparedness this year began earlier than usual, Mr. Oketch said, with support from both national and county governments. Some counties have already rolled out their preparedness plans, and others are actively engaging communities on protective actions ahead of the anticipated rains, with resource-allocation discussions underway to ensure interventions are delivered on time.
"We have engagements with some communities, which have already started at county level, to warn about the impending hazard and actions to be taken," he said.
That early rollout is visible on the ground, according to local media reports. Nairobi County has mapped 246 flood hotspots and estimates that between 22,000 and 25,000 households could be affected under a medium-impact scenario, with schools and other facilities identified as evacuation centres. In Kenya¡¯s Nyando constituency which is centered on the equator at 35¡ã10E and which lays between Lake Victoria and the Nandi escarpment, around ten evacuation centres have already been stocked with food, medical supplies and mosquito nets.
Bomet which is around the Rift Valley, has mapped its own flood hotspots and is actively sensitizing residents to move away from riverbanks and other flood-prone areas, while in the highland county of Kericho which is on the edge of the Mau Forest, mudslide-prone zones have been identified in the Kipkelion East and West locations.
Most counties have also begun allocating budgets specifically for emergency response, though officials note the scale of that funding varies widely from one county to the next.
Mr. Oketch called on Kenyans to heed expert guidance regarding the El-Ni?o events, describing the event as "once-in-a-lifetime," and encouraged communities, especially those aware that they are in danger zones to take mitigation steps early. He also called for coordinated action across sectors to ensure available resources are used to secure the most vulnerable livelihoods and infrastructure.
An Opportunity to Harness El-Ni?o
Beyond the risks, Mr. Oketch pointed to an opportunity in the rains themselves, urging people to look past the climate shock and consider how the rainfall could be harnessed productively for growing crops. He also urged the national government to trigger and utilize emergency budget to support communities.
"The El Ni?o event could be negative, but going forward, Kenya needs to start also thinking, when such an event occurs, how do we maximize on what it comes with, and turn that negative into a positive," Mr. Oketch encouraged.
