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Regional Workshop on Population Estimation and Projections for Africa

12 October 2026 to 16 October 2026

Nairobi, Kenya

Overview

Regional Workshop on Population Estimation and Projections for Africa (12-16 October, Nairobi, Kenya) will be jointly organized by PD/DESA, UNFPA and ECA to strengthen the capacity of national statistical offices to evaluate census data and produce national population projections, following the methodological approach used in the World Population Prospects. The workshop will bring together country teams of technical staff from the national statistical offices of Botswana, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Rwanda, and South Sudan. Combining lectures and demonstrations with hands-on sessions using R-based tools, the week-long programme will take participants through the full workflow with their own country data, from census evaluation and preparation of the base population, and fertility, mortality and migration inputs, to cohort-component projections. It will also include overviews of subnational population projection approaches. Country teams will present their preliminary projections for peer review on the final day.

Documents

Organization of work

Monday, 12 October 2026
AM (9:00–12:30)
  • Opening & orientation
  • Overview of population data systems (census, surveys, CRVS, population registers, COD-PS)
  • Dissemination, communication & use of population estimates by national authorities
  • Case study: diagnosing discrepancies between national and WPP estimates
  • Overview of subnational population projection approaches
PM (13:30–17:30)
  • Census evaluation methods
  • Country practice in census adjustment
  • Hands-on: data quality assessment and census adjustment
  • Hands-on: base population preparation
  • Country presentations: national data landscape
Tuesday, 13 October 2026
AM (9:00–12:30)
  • Fertility estimation: levels and trends
  • Statistical adjustment of incomplete birth registration data
  • Age patterns and fertility projection
  • Subnational fertility projection
PM (13:30–17:30)
  • Hands-on: fertility estimation with country data
  • Hands-on: fertility projection with country data
  • Group review of country team results
Wednesday, 14 October 2026
AM (9:00–12:30)
  • Mortality estimation: levels and trends
  • Statistical adjustment of incomplete death registration data
  • Life tables and mortality projection
  • Subnational mortality projection
PM (13:30–17:30)
  • Hands-on: mortality estimation and life table construction with country data
  • Hands-on: mortality projection with country data
  • Group review of country team results
Thursday, 15 October 2026
AM (9:00–12:30)
  • International migration estimation and projection
  • Population reconciliation
  • Subnational: internal migration
PM (13:30–17:30)
  • Hands-on: migration estimation and projection setup
  • WPP 2027 country data review
  • Group review of country team results
Friday, 16 October 2026
AM (9:00–12:30)
  • Intercensal estimation
  • Probabilistic population projections
  • Hands-on: running cohort component projections
PM (13:30–17:30)
  • Subnational projections: consolidated discussion and follow-up pathways
  • Country presentations and peer review of preliminary results
  • Workshop evaluation and next steps
  • Closing